In a Wall Street Journal interview on Monday, one of the few pollsters to pick Trump’s upset win in 2016, Matt Towery, called the polls showing the President down “sheer folly.” Even this late in the race, he’s “increasingly confident” Trump will win again.
Towery argues that the significant polling models do a poor job of “picking up the average guy on the street” by trying to conduct cell phone surveys lasting 20 minutes or more. He insists this method prevents getting through to “normal cell phone recipients” who won’t answer these pollsters’ calls. Towery concedes Trump has lost some of the senior citizen vote but believes he’ll make up for that by picking up more of the African American vote and young adult vote than polls predict.
The WSJ also spoke to Raghavan Mayur from Technometrica, which also was correct in 2016. Mayur explains, “republicans and Independents are very enthusiastic” on election day, and that enthusiasm is not factored into most polling:
Watch WSJ: What They Miss
Is it wishful thinking, or are TTrump’smassive, high-energy rallies a more accurate predictor of the race than all the major polls?
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